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Expectancy
Risk Management
どういう意味か
The average amount you expect to make per trade, accounting for both wins and losses. A positive expectancy means your strategy should make money over many trades.
例
A strategy wins 40% of the time with an average win of $300 and an average loss of $100. Expectancy = (0.40 x $300) - (0.60 x $100) = $120 - $60 = $60 per trade.
初心者がよくやるミス
Beginners obsess over win rate and ignore expectancy. A 30% win rate with $1,000 wins and $100 losses is far more profitable than a 90% win rate with $10 wins and $100 losses.
関連用語
- Win Rate — The percentage of your trades that are winners. It is one half of profitability -- the oth…
- Risk-Reward Ratio — How much you risk on a trade compared to how much you aim to make. A 1:3 ratio means you r…
- R-Multiple — Expressing profit or loss as a multiple of the amount risked. It makes every trade compara…