Three Soldiers and Three Crows: Filtering Rules for Valid Setups

Three White Soldiers and Three Black Crows are visually obvious — and obviously over-traded. Without quantitative filters, the patterns fail more than half the time. The filters are the edge.

The five-filter checklist

Apply every filter. A pattern that fails any one is not a valid setup — stand aside.

Filter 1: Prior trend (mandatory)

• Three Soldiers require a prior downtrend of at least 5 candles (or price at major support).
• Three Crows require a prior uptrend of at least 5 candles (or price at major resistance).
• No prior trend, no reversal to trade. Mid-range three-candle pushes are not the pattern.

Filter 2: Body size (mandatory)

• Each candle's body must be ≥0.8× the 20-period average true range.
• Three small-bodied candles in a row are not soldiers — they are indecision. Reject bodies <0.5× ATR.
• Bodies should ideally expand or hold steady; shrinking bodies signal exhaustion within the pattern.

Filter 3: Open location (mandatory)

• Each candle must open within the prior candle's body (ideal) or within the prior candle's range (acceptable).
• A candle that gaps below the prior body (Three Soldiers) shows sellers still in control — reject.
• The pattern requires progressive commitment, not gap-driven drift.

Filter 4: Wick ratio (mandatory)

• Each candle's body must be ≥60% of its total range.
• A long upper wick on the third soldier (or lower wick on the third crow) signals rejection — the apparent reversal is suspect.
• Specifically reject the third candle if its wick against the move exceeds 0.5× its body.

Filter 5: Volume (mandatory)

• Volume must rise or hold steady across the three candles — ideally the third candle has the highest volume.
• Declining volume across the three candles means the move runs on inertia, not participation. Reject.

Scoring

Score 1 point per filter passed. Trade only patterns scoring 5/5. Patterns scoring 3–4/5 fail at roughly 55–60%; patterns scoring 5/5 reverse and follow through at roughly 60–65% in backtests at daily support/resistance.

Entry and management

• Entry: do not chase the third candle's close. Wait for a pullback to the second candle's body or a short moving average (8-EMA). Enter on the first resumption candle in the reversal direction.
• Stop: beyond the pattern's extreme (below the first soldier's low, above the first crow's high).
• Target: the nearest structural level in the reversal direction, or a measured move equal to the pattern's full range (1:1). Scale 50% at target, trail the rest.

The pattern is rare — perhaps 5–10 clean instances per instrument per year on daily charts. The filters make the rarity a feature. Force the pattern onto marginal setups and the edge disappears.