Weekly and Monthly Pivots for Swing and Position Trading

Daily pivots reset every session and suit intraday trading. Weekly and monthly pivots reset slowly and suit swing (2–10 day) and position (2–6 week) holds. The discipline is using each timeframe for its correct role.

The monthly pivot as regime filter

The monthly central pivot (PP) defines the regime for the entire month:

• Price above monthly PP: bullish regime. Take only long swing trades.
• Price below monthly PP: bearish regime. Take only short swing trades.
• Price chopping across monthly PP: no regime. Stand aside or reduce size.

This filter alone eliminates most counter-trend swing losses. If the monthly bias is bullish, do not hold shorts — even if a daily setup appears.

The weekly pivot as entry zone

Within the regime, use weekly S1 and R1 as entry zones:

Long swing (monthly bullish)

1. Wait for price to pull back to weekly S1 or the weekly PP.
2. Require a daily bullish reversal candle (hammer, engulfing) at the level.
3. Enter long. Stop: below weekly S2 (or 1×weekly ATR below entry). Target: weekly R1, then weekly R2.
4. Hold for 2–10 days; scale out 50% at weekly R1, trail the rest under the weekly PP.

Short swing (monthly bearish)

1. Wait for a rally to weekly R1 or weekly PP.
2. Require a daily bearish reversal candle.
3. Enter short. Stop: above weekly R2. Target: weekly S1, then S2.

Position trading with monthly R1/S1

For multi-week holds, use monthly R1/S1:

• Long position: enter on a pullback to monthly PP or S1 in a bullish regime. Stop: below monthly S2. Target: monthly R1, then R2. Hold 2–6 weeks.
• Trailing: once price exceeds monthly R1, trail the stop to monthly PP. Exit on a weekly close back below monthly PP.

Stop and risk rules

• Swing stop: place beyond the weekly level that invalidates the thesis (below weekly S2 for longs). Risk no more than 1–1.5% of equity per trade.
• Position stop: beyond the monthly level (below monthly S2). Wider stop, smaller size — risk the same 1%.
• Time stop: if a swing trade has not moved toward the first target within 5 sessions, exit. Dead money erodes opportunity.

Common mistakes

• Using daily pivots for swing exits: daily levels chop. Exit at weekly/monthly levels or trailing stops, not daily R1.
• Ignoring the monthly regime: a weekly long setup against a bearish monthly regime fails more often than it works.
• Holding through monthly close: monthly pivots recalculate at month-end. A level that was support may vanish — reassess every monthly open.

Monthly for regime, weekly for entries and exits, monthly R1/S1 for position targets. Each timeframe has one job; mixing them creates noise.