Blog de Trading
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Exibindo 18 artigos em #market-phases
#market-phases
Market Seasonality: Sell in May, the Santa Rally, and the January Effect
Quantify calendar effects in equities — the November-April best six months, the Santa rally, and the January effect — and use them as tactical tilts.
Kondratiev Wave: The Long-Term Perspective on Markets and Debt
Understand the Kondratiev Wave's 50-60 year cycles of debt and technology, its four seasons, and the limitations of long-wave analysis for trading.
The Four-Stage Market Cycle: Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, Markdown
Identify the four market cycle stages — accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown — by volume signatures and where to participate profitably.
Economic Cycle and Asset Rotation: Early, Mid, Late, Recession
Map the four economic cycle phases to outperforming assets — early-cycle stocks and industrials, late-cycle commodities, and recession bonds.
Cycle Top and Bottom Identification Signals
Identify market cycle tops and bottoms using margin debt, distribution days, capitulation volume, sentiment extremes, and base formation signals.
Crypto Four-Year Cycle: The Halving Effect and Diminishing Returns
Examine Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, pre- and post-halving returns across 2012-2024, and why each cycle shows diminishing percentage gains.
Credit Cycle and Risk Appetite: Spreads as a Leading Indicator
Track the credit cycle through high-yield OAS spreads and leverage ratios to gauge risk appetite and rotate between risk-on and risk-off regimes.
Wyckoff vs Elliott Wave vs Harmonic Patterns
Wyckoff, Elliott Wave, and Harmonic patterns are three of the most respected technical frameworks — here is how they differ, overlap, and combine.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Analysis Core Reading
Reading individual price/volume bars is the foundation skill of Wyckoff — learn the nine classic bar combinations and what each reveals about supply and demand.
Complete Wyckoff Trading System Workflow
A complete, step-by-step Wyckoff trading workflow — from market selection through schematic identification, entry, risk management, and exit.
Wyckoff's Three Laws: Supply/Demand, Cause/Effect, Effort/Result
Wyckoff's three laws — supply and demand, cause and effect, and effort versus result — are the analytical backbone of the entire method.
Spring and Upthrust (UTAD) Signals
The spring and the upthrust after distribution are the two highest-conviction Wyckoff entry triggers — learn their anatomy, variations, and how to trade them.