Building a Retail Sentiment Score with IG and Myfxbook

A single broker's client positioning is noisy. Combining IG's sentiment feed with Myfxbook's community aggregate produces a more stable contrarian signal. The goal is one normalized score per pair per day.

Why Combine Sources

IG publishes long/short percentages for its client base. Myfxbook aggregates across thousands of tracked accounts. They overlap but do not mirror each other. IG skews toward European retail; Myfxbook skews toward global self-directed traders. Where both agree at an extreme, the contrarian edge strengthens.

Constructing the Score

For each pair, pull the long percentage from both sources daily. Define:

Crowd Long Index = (IG_long_pct + Myfxbook_long_pct) / 2

Then normalize the index to its rolling 52-week range:

Score = (Crowd Long Index − 52w_min) / (52w_max − 52w_min) × 100

The score runs 0 (max bearish crowd) to 100 (max bullish crowd).

Actionable Thresholds

Backtested on major pairs over multiple years, the following thresholds held up:

• Score above 85: contrarian short bias. Fade rallies into resistance. Avoid adding longs.
• Score below 15: contrarian long bias. Buy dips into support. Avoid adding shorts.
• Score 30-70: no contrarian edge. Trade your normal technical system.

The 85/15 bands are pair-specific. JPY crosses tend to run more extreme; test your own window before deploying capital.

Combining with Price

The score is a filter, not a trigger. Require:

1. Score at extreme (above 85 or below 15).
2. Price at a higher-timeframe S/R level (4H or daily).
3. A reversal candle or momentum divergence on the entry timeframe.

Risk 0.5-1% per trade. Target the next major S/R, typically 1.5-2.5R.

Maintenance and Failure Modes

Recalculate the 52-week range weekly; thresholds drift as the retail population shifts. The score fails during strong trends, where crowd positioning stays extreme for weeks while price keeps trending. This is why price confirmation is mandatory. If price keeps making new extremes against your contrarian stance for 5 sessions, exit, do not average down.

Daily Routine

Five minutes per day: pull both feeds, compute the score for your 3-5 watchlist pairs, flag any reading above 85 or below 15, then wait for price confirmation. Discipline over complexity.