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Showing 30 articles in #macro

#macro

Yield Curve: Shapes and Recession Warning Signals

Read yield curve shapes — normal, flat, inverted, and steep — and use the 2s10s and 3m10y spreads as recession warning signals with documented lead times.

#fundamentals#macro

VIX and Equities: The Negative Correlation Mechanics

VIX and the S&P 500 share a structurally negative, asymmetric correlation; traders quantify it to size hedges and time mean reversion.

#intermarket#macro

Valuation Multiples: P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA Explained

A practical guide to P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA valuation multiples — what each measures, when it breaks, and the sector benchmarks that make them comparable.

#fundamentals#macro

Stock-Bond Correlation: Regime Shifts That Redefine Risk

Stock-bond correlation swings between negative and positive regimes, reshaping the 60/40 hedge and forcing traders to adjust exposure when the regime flips.

#intermarket#macro

Sector Rotation: The Merrill Lynch Investment Clock

Apply the Merrill Lynch investment clock to sector rotation across the four economic phases — bond, equity, commodity, and cash phases — with sector tilts per stage.

#fundamentals#macro

Identifying Intermarket Arbitrage Opportunities

Intermarket arbitrage spots pricing gaps between correlated assets — ADRs, futures vs ETFs, and index spreads — using z-score triggers and tight risk bands.

#intermarket#macro

Tracking Global Capital Flows: ETF and COT Data

ETF flows and the CFTC Commitments of Traders report reveal where global capital rotates, flagging crowded longs and smart-money extremes weekly.

#intermarket#macro

GDP, CPI, and PPI: Trading the Data Release Reaction

Trade the GDP, CPI, and PPI data releases with consensus-comparison rules, reaction sizes, and the fade-versus-follow framework for the first 30 minutes.

#fundamentals#macro

Futures Curve: Contango and Backwardation Explained

Read futures curve shapes — contango and backwardation — and trade the roll yield, with examples from oil, gold, and VIX futures showing how curve structure drives returns.

#fundamentals#macro

Earnings Season: Trading the Post-Earnings EPS Drift

Trade earnings season using post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD), with surprise thresholds, guidance filters, and entry timing after the print.

#fundamentals#macro

Dollar, Gold, and Oil: Reading the Inverse Correlation

The dollar-gold-oil inverse correlation breaks when real yields and supply shocks diverge; traders must know when the relationship holds and when it flips.

#intermarket#macro

Central Bank Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting and Forward Guidance

Understand central bank monetary policy frameworks — inflation targeting, forward guidance, and how policy rate path expectations drive currencies and bonds.

#fundamentals#macro