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在 #market-cycles 中显示 19 篇文章
#market-cycles
市场周期理论：康波、朱格拉、基钦
经济通过不同长度的嵌套波浪脉动，周期理论给这些波浪命名，给交易员一个判断自己处在节奏哪一段的框架。
#market-cycles#seasonality
黄金和避险周期
黄金不付息也不生产任何东西，所以它的价格在跟实际利率、美元、危机恐惧挂钩的多年长周期里摇摆，框定金属里的每一次行情。
#market-cycles#seasonality
外汇的月度和周度季节性
外汇没有财报季，但它有季节性——藏在财年末、回流资金流、月末再平衡里，而不是公司日历里。
#market-cycles#seasonality
经济周期与资产轮动
同一个经济周期，扩张时把股市托起来，衰退时又把它按下去——资产轮动就是持有每个阶段领先的资产类别和板块。
#market-cycles#seasonality
周期共振与重叠分析
一个周期是微风，两个对齐是阵风，三个同时转向就是风暴——周期共振，正是市场最大行情诞生的地方。
#market-cycles#seasonality
加密货币减半周期与季节性
比特币内置了一台供给时钟，每四年把发行量砍半——这造就了所有大类资产里最规律的周期：一个四年一次的繁荣、崩盘、积累的脉动。
#market-cycles#seasonality
商品季节性：原油、天然气、农产品
商品季节性是唯一有物理原因的季节性——谷物秋天收割、天然气夏天注入冬天采出、出行季汽油需求见顶，日历本身就是供需曲线。
#market-cycles#seasonality